Simple Rating System: Final results and predicting the Bowls – 12/5/2011

Believe it or not, the Oklahoma State Cowboys ended up finishing #2 in the SRS. Like last week, LSU remains the clear #1. But on the basis of the most impressive SRS game of the season, the Cowboys topped the Crimson Tide.

Rk.  Team                 Conf  G    MOV      SOS      SRS      W-L
1.   LSU                  SEC   13   24.4     41.4     65.8     13-0
2.   Oklahoma St          B12   12   20.6     43.7     64.2     11-1
3.   Alabama              SEC   12   23.4     40.4     63.8     11-1
4.   Oregon               P12   13   18.7     41.1     59.8     11-2
5.   Stanford             P12   12   19.3     39.6     58.8     11-1
6.   Oklahoma             B12   12   14.0     44.7     58.7      9-3
7.   Wisconsin            B10   13   21.8     36.7     58.5     11-2
8.   Boise St             MWC   12   20.9     34.2     55.1     11-1
9.   Michigan             B10   12   15.3     39.7     55.0     10-2
10.  Southern Cal         P12   12   11.0     42.1     53.2     10-2
11.  Texas A&M            B12   12    8.0     44.4     52.4      6-6
12.  Arkansas             SEC   12   12.3     39.6     51.8     10-2
13.  Houston              CUS   13   22.4     28.7     51.1     12-1
14.  Baylor               B12   12    7.0     44.0     51.0      9-3
15.  Michigan St          B10   13   11.2     39.2     50.4     10-3
16.  Georgia              SEC   13   10.2     39.3     49.5     10-3
17.  Notre Dame           IND   12    8.0     41.5     49.5      8-4
18.  TCU                  MWC   12   17.1     32.3     49.4     10-2
19.  Missouri             B12   12    6.3     43.0     49.3      7-5
20.  South Carolina       SEC   12   10.1     39.2     49.3     10-2
21.  Texas                B12   12    4.8     44.4     49.1      7-5
22.  Kansas St            B12   12    4.9     43.3     48.2     10-2
23.  Nebraska             B10   12    7.0     41.1     48.1      9-3
24.  Florida St           ACC   12   13.2     33.8     47.0      8-4
25.  Arizona St           P12   12    6.6     39.6     46.2      6-6
26.  Virginia Tech        ACC   13    9.8     35.6     45.4     11-2
27.  Clemson              ACC   13    7.4     37.3     44.6     10-3
28.  Southern Miss        CUS   13   15.5     29.0     44.5     11-2
29.  Penn State           B10   12    4.0     40.4     44.4      9-3
30.  California           P12   12    4.4     39.5     43.9      7-5
31.  Toledo               MAC   12    9.8     33.8     43.6      8-4
32.  West Virginia        BgE   12    7.2     36.1     43.3      9-3
33.  Vanderbilt           SEC   12    4.2     39.0     43.2      6-6
34.  Ohio State           B10   12    3.5     39.8     43.2      6-6
35.  Cincinnati           BgE   12   11.3     31.9     43.2      9-3
36.  Iowa                 B10   12    5.4     37.5     42.9      7-5
37.  Florida              SEC   12    2.8     40.1     42.9      6-6
38.  Mississippi St       SEC   12    3.9     38.8     42.6      6-6
39.  Tulsa                CUS   12    6.0     36.5     42.5      8-4
40.  Utah                 P12   12    3.9     38.6     42.5      7-5
41.  Miami FL             ACC   12    4.8     37.1     41.9      6-6
42.  Brigham Young        IND   12    9.0     31.9     40.9      9-3
43.  Tennessee            SEC   12   -1.9     42.7     40.8      5-7
44.  North Carolina       ACC   12    4.2     36.4     40.6      7-5
45.  Louisiana Tech       WAC   12    7.5     33.1     40.6      8-4
46.  Georgia Tech         ACC   12    7.8     32.8     40.6      8-4
47.  Temple               MAC   12   12.7     27.8     40.4      8-4
48.  Iowa St              B12   12   -6.0     46.0     40.0      6-6
49.  Washington           P12   12   -1.3     41.3     39.9      7-5
50.  Pittsburgh           BgE   12    1.8     38.1     39.9      6-6
51.  South Florida        BgE   12    4.3     35.6     39.9      5-7
52.  Rutgers              BgE   12    6.0     33.7     39.7      8-4
53.  Illinois             B10   12    0.4     39.1     39.5      6-6
54.  Arkansas St          Sun   12   13.1     26.0     39.1     10-2
55.  Northern Illinois    MAC   13    7.8     31.2     39.0     10-3
56.  Nevada               WAC   12    6.1     32.5     38.6      7-5
57.  Auburn               SEC   12   -3.7     42.2     38.6      7-5
58.  Northwestern         B10   12    2.1     35.9     37.9      6-6
59.  Louisville           BgE   12    2.4     35.5     37.9      7-5
60.  San Diego St         MWC   12    5.1     32.7     37.8      8-4
61.  Arizona              P12   12   -4.9     42.7     37.8      4-8
62.  Texas Tech           B12   12   -5.1     42.1     37.0      5-7
63.  Air Force            MWC   12    5.4     31.0     36.4      7-5
64.  UCLA                 P12   13   -7.5     43.8     36.3      6-7
65.  Western Michigan     MAC   12    6.5     29.7     36.2      7-5
66.  North Carolina St    ACC   12    2.4     33.5     35.9      7-5
67.  Utah St              WAC   12    5.1     30.7     35.8      7-5
68.  Virginia             ACC   12    1.2     34.3     35.5      8-4
69.  Navy                 IND   11    0.7     34.6     35.3      4-7
70.  Ohio U.              MAC   13    9.2     26.1     35.3      9-4
71.  Purdue               B10   12   -1.4     36.1     34.6      6-6
72.  Wake Forest          ACC   12   -1.0     35.5     34.6      6-6
73.  Connecticut          BgE   12   -0.4     34.8     34.5      5-7
74.  Washington St        P12   12   -3.1     37.4     34.4      4-8
75.  SMU                  CUS   12    0.5     33.7     34.3      7-5
76.  Oregon St            P12   12   -9.0     43.1     34.1      3-9
77.  Central Florida      CUS   12    5.7     28.0     33.7      5-7
78.  Wyoming              MWC   12    0.9     31.5     32.4      8-4
79.  Florida Int'l        Sun   12    6.6     25.7     32.4      8-4
80.  Boston College       ACC   12   -4.8     36.9     32.2      4-8
81.  Syracuse             BgE   12   -4.6     36.5     31.9      5-7
82.  Kentucky             SEC   12   -7.8     39.2     31.4      5-7
83.  Minnesota            B10   12  -11.7     42.5     30.9      3-9
84.  Miami OH             MAC   12   -2.0     32.8     30.8      4-8
85.  Louisiana-Lafayette  Sun   12    2.8     27.5     30.3      8-4
86.  Hawai`i              WAC   13    1.3     28.7     30.1      6-7
87.  San José St          WAC   12   -4.3     34.3     30.0      5-7
88.  Fresno St            WAC   13   -5.5     34.6     29.1      4-9
89.  Western Kentucky     Sun   12   -1.1     30.2     29.1      7-5
90.  Marshall             CUS   12   -5.7     34.8     29.0      6-6
91.  Mississippi          SEC   12  -14.5     43.1     28.6      2-10
92.  Bowling Green        MAC   12   -2.4     31.0     28.6      5-7
93.  Ball St              MAC   12   -6.1     34.6     28.5      6-6
94.  East Carolina        CUS   12   -5.1     33.2     28.2      5-7
95.  Colorado             P12   13  -14.0     42.1     28.1      3-10
96.  Louisiana-Monroe     Sun   12   -0.8     29.0     28.1      4-8
97.  Duke                 ACC   12   -8.5     36.4     27.9      3-9
98.  UTEP                 CUS   12   -3.9     31.7     27.9      5-7
99.  Kansas               B12   12  -17.8     45.4     27.6      2-10
100. Maryland             ACC   12  -11.8     39.3     27.5      2-10
101. Army                 IND   11   -4.5     31.5     27.0      3-8
102. Rice                 CUS   12   -8.9     35.6     26.7      4-8
103. North Texas          Sun   12   -6.1     32.3     26.2      5-7
104. Kent St              MAC   12   -6.3     32.2     25.9      5-7
105. Eastern Michigan     MAC   12   -2.7     28.2     25.5      6-6
106. Indiana              B10   12  -14.2     38.0     23.8      1-11
107. Buffalo              MAC   12   -7.5     31.2     23.8      3-9
108. New Mexico St        WAC   13  -10.1     32.5     22.4      4-9
109. Central Michigan     MAC   12   -9.4     31.3     21.8      3-9
110. Colorado St          MWC   12   -8.7     30.4     21.7      3-9
111. Idaho                WAC   12  -12.0     33.4     21.5      2-10
112. Troy                 Sun   12  -10.1     30.1     20.0      3-9
113. Alabama-Birmingham   CUS   12  -13.7     30.9     17.2      3-9
114. UNLV                 MWC   12  -19.9     36.2     16.3      2-10
115. Middle Tennessee St  Sun   12  -12.7     28.7     15.9      2-10
116. Tulane               CUS   13  -14.2     27.8     13.6      2-11
117. New Mexico           MWC   12  -23.6     36.1     12.5      1-11
118. Florida Atlantic     Sun   12  -19.5     30.9     11.4      1-11
119. Memphis              CUS   12  -15.8     27.0     11.3      2-10
120. Akron                MAC   12  -20.5     29.6      9.1      1-11

And by conference:

24.  Florida St           ACC   12   13.2     33.8     47.0      8-4
26.  Virginia Tech        ACC   13    9.8     35.6     45.4     11-2
27.  Clemson              ACC   13    7.4     37.3     44.6     10-3
41.  Miami FL             ACC   12    4.8     37.1     41.9      6-6
44.  North Carolina       ACC   12    4.2     36.4     40.6      7-5
46.  Georgia Tech         ACC   12    7.8     32.8     40.6      8-4
66.  North Carolina St    ACC   12    2.4     33.5     35.9      7-5
68.  Virginia             ACC   12    1.2     34.3     35.5      8-4
72.  Wake Forest          ACC   12   -1.0     35.5     34.6      6-6
80.  Boston College       ACC   12   -4.8     36.9     32.2      4-8
97.  Duke                 ACC   12   -8.5     36.4     27.9      3-9
100. Maryland             ACC   12  -11.8     39.3     27.5      2-10
7.   Wisconsin            B10   13   21.8     36.7     58.5     11-2
9.   Michigan             B10   12   15.3     39.7     55.0     10-2
15.  Michigan St          B10   13   11.2     39.2     50.4     10-3
23.  Nebraska             B10   12    7.0     41.1     48.1      9-3
29.  Penn State           B10   12    4.0     40.4     44.4      9-3
34.  Ohio State           B10   12    3.5     39.8     43.2      6-6
36.  Iowa                 B10   12    5.4     37.5     42.9      7-5
53.  Illinois             B10   12    0.4     39.1     39.5      6-6
58.  Northwestern         B10   12    2.1     35.9     37.9      6-6
71.  Purdue               B10   12   -1.4     36.1     34.6      6-6
83.  Minnesota            B10   12  -11.7     42.5     30.9      3-9
106. Indiana              B10   12  -14.2     38.0     23.8      1-11
2.   Oklahoma St          B12   12   20.6     43.7     64.2     11-1
6.   Oklahoma             B12   12   14.0     44.7     58.7      9-3
11.  Texas A&M            B12   12    8.0     44.4     52.4      6-6
14.  Baylor               B12   12    7.0     44.0     51.0      9-3
19.  Missouri             B12   12    6.3     43.0     49.3      7-5
21.  Texas                B12   12    4.8     44.4     49.1      7-5
22.  Kansas St            B12   12    4.9     43.3     48.2     10-2
48.  Iowa St              B12   12   -6.0     46.0     40.0      6-6
62.  Texas Tech           B12   12   -5.1     42.1     37.0      5-7
99.  Kansas               B12   12  -17.8     45.4     27.6      2-10
32.  West Virginia        BgE   12    7.2     36.1     43.3      9-3
35.  Cincinnati           BgE   12   11.3     31.9     43.2      9-3
50.  Pittsburgh           BgE   12    1.8     38.1     39.9      6-6
51.  South Florida        BgE   12    4.3     35.6     39.9      5-7
52.  Rutgers              BgE   12    6.0     33.7     39.7      8-4
59.  Louisville           BgE   12    2.4     35.5     37.9      7-5
73.  Connecticut          BgE   12   -0.4     34.8     34.5      5-7
81.  Syracuse             BgE   12   -4.6     36.5     31.9      5-7
13.  Houston              CUS   13   22.4     28.7     51.1     12-1
28.  Southern Miss        CUS   13   15.5     29.0     44.5     11-2
39.  Tulsa                CUS   12    6.0     36.5     42.5      8-4
75.  SMU                  CUS   12    0.5     33.7     34.3      7-5
77.  Central Florida      CUS   12    5.7     28.0     33.7      5-7
90.  Marshall             CUS   12   -5.7     34.8     29.0      6-6
94.  East Carolina        CUS   12   -5.1     33.2     28.2      5-7
98.  UTEP                 CUS   12   -3.9     31.7     27.9      5-7
102. Rice                 CUS   12   -8.9     35.6     26.7      4-8
113. Alabama-Birmingham   CUS   12  -13.7     30.9     17.2      3-9
116. Tulane               CUS   13  -14.2     27.8     13.6      2-11
119. Memphis              CUS   12  -15.8     27.0     11.3      2-10
17.  Notre Dame           IND   12    8.0     41.5     49.5      8-4
42.  Brigham Young        IND   12    9.0     31.9     40.9      9-3
69.  Navy                 IND   11    0.7     34.6     35.3      4-7
101. Army                 IND   11   -4.5     31.5     27.0      3-8
31.  Toledo               MAC   12    9.8     33.8     43.6      8-4
47.  Temple               MAC   12   12.7     27.8     40.4      8-4
55.  Northern Illinois    MAC   13    7.8     31.2     39.0     10-3
65.  Western Michigan     MAC   12    6.5     29.7     36.2      7-5
70.  Ohio U.              MAC   13    9.2     26.1     35.3      9-4
84.  Miami OH             MAC   12   -2.0     32.8     30.8      4-8
92.  Bowling Green        MAC   12   -2.4     31.0     28.6      5-7
93.  Ball St              MAC   12   -6.1     34.6     28.5      6-6
104. Kent St              MAC   12   -6.3     32.2     25.9      5-7
105. Eastern Michigan     MAC   12   -2.7     28.2     25.5      6-6
107. Buffalo              MAC   12   -7.5     31.2     23.8      3-9
109. Central Michigan     MAC   12   -9.4     31.3     21.8      3-9
120. Akron                MAC   12  -20.5     29.6      9.1      1-11
8.   Boise St             MWC   12   20.9     34.2     55.1     11-1
18.  TCU                  MWC   12   17.1     32.3     49.4     10-2
60.  San Diego St         MWC   12    5.1     32.7     37.8      8-4
63.  Air Force            MWC   12    5.4     31.0     36.4      7-5
78.  Wyoming              MWC   12    0.9     31.5     32.4      8-4
110. Colorado St          MWC   12   -8.7     30.4     21.7      3-9
114. UNLV                 MWC   12  -19.9     36.2     16.3      2-10
117. New Mexico           MWC   12  -23.6     36.1     12.5      1-11
4.   Oregon               P12   13   18.7     41.1     59.8     11-2
5.   Stanford             P12   12   19.3     39.6     58.8     11-1
10.  Southern Cal         P12   12   11.0     42.1     53.2     10-2
25.  Arizona St           P12   12    6.6     39.6     46.2      6-6
30.  California           P12   12    4.4     39.5     43.9      7-5
40.  Utah                 P12   12    3.9     38.6     42.5      7-5
49.  Washington           P12   12   -1.3     41.3     39.9      7-5
61.  Arizona              P12   12   -4.9     42.7     37.8      4-8
64.  UCLA                 P12   13   -7.5     43.8     36.3      6-7
74.  Washington St        P12   12   -3.1     37.4     34.4      4-8
76.  Oregon St            P12   12   -9.0     43.1     34.1      3-9
95.  Colorado             P12   13  -14.0     42.1     28.1      3-10
1.   LSU                  SEC   13   24.4     41.4     65.8     13-0
3.   Alabama              SEC   12   23.4     40.4     63.8     11-1
12.  Arkansas             SEC   12   12.3     39.6     51.8     10-2
16.  Georgia              SEC   13   10.2     39.3     49.5     10-3
20.  South Carolina       SEC   12   10.1     39.2     49.3     10-2
33.  Vanderbilt           SEC   12    4.2     39.0     43.2      6-6
37.  Florida              SEC   12    2.8     40.1     42.9      6-6
38.  Mississippi St       SEC   12    3.9     38.8     42.6      6-6
43.  Tennessee            SEC   12   -1.9     42.7     40.8      5-7
57.  Auburn               SEC   12   -3.7     42.2     38.6      7-5
82.  Kentucky             SEC   12   -7.8     39.2     31.4      5-7
91.  Mississippi          SEC   12  -14.5     43.1     28.6      2-10
54.  Arkansas St          Sun   12   13.1     26.0     39.1     10-2
79.  Florida Int'l        Sun   12    6.6     25.7     32.4      8-4
85.  Louisiana-Lafayette  Sun   12    2.8     27.5     30.3      8-4
89.  Western Kentucky     Sun   12   -1.1     30.2     29.1      7-5
96.  Louisiana-Monroe     Sun   12   -0.8     29.0     28.1      4-8
103. North Texas          Sun   12   -6.1     32.3     26.2      5-7
112. Troy                 Sun   12  -10.1     30.1     20.0      3-9
115. Middle Tennessee St  Sun   12  -12.7     28.7     15.9      2-10
118. Florida Atlantic     Sun   12  -19.5     30.9     11.4      1-11
45.  Louisiana Tech       WAC   12    7.5     33.1     40.6      8-4
56.  Nevada               WAC   12    6.1     32.5     38.6      7-5
67.  Utah St              WAC   12    5.1     30.7     35.8      7-5
86.  Hawai`i              WAC   13    1.3     28.7     30.1      6-7
87.  San José St          WAC   12   -4.3     34.3     30.0      5-7
88.  Fresno St            WAC   13   -5.5     34.6     29.1      4-9
108. New Mexico St        WAC   13  -10.1     32.5     22.4      4-9
111. Idaho                WAC   12  -12.0     33.4     21.5      2-10

There’s just one game left in the college football regular season: Navy at Army (+5.3 according to the SRS) at West Point this weekend. What were the most impressive wins of the season? Shockingly, Oklahoma or Oklahoma State come up five times in the top six. The Cowboys win this weekend ranked as the highest game of the season; listed below are the top 40 single game SRS scores:

date       Team          PF   Opp            PA   H/R/N  MOV    SOS    SRS
3-Dec-11   Oklahoma St   44   Oklahoma       10   home   27.5   58.7   86.2
12-Nov-11  Oregon        53   Stanford       30   road   25.0   58.8   83.8
29-Oct-11  Oklahoma      58   Kansas St      17   road   34.0   48.2   82.2
12-Nov-11  Oklahoma St   66   Texas Tech      6   road   43.5   37.0   80.5
8-Oct-11   Oklahoma      55   Texas          17   ntrl   31.0   49.1   80.1
29-Oct-11  Oklahoma St   59   Baylor         24   home   28.0   51.0   79.0
3-Dec-11   LSU           42   Georgia        10   ntrl   28.0   49.5   77.5
17-Sep-11  Utah          54   Brigham Young  10   road   35.5   40.9   76.4
3-Dec-11   Southern Miss 49   Houston        28   road   24.0   51.1   75.1
15-Oct-11  Texas A&M     55   Baylor         28   home   24.0   51.0   75.0
1-Oct-11   Wisconsin     48   Nebraska       17   home   26.0   48.1   74.1
26-Nov-11  Wisconsin     45   Penn State      7   home   29.5   44.4   73.9
10-Sep-11  Oregon        69   Nevada         20   home   35.0   38.6   73.6
22-Oct-11  Oklahoma St   45   Missouri       24   road   24.0   49.3   73.3
25-Nov-11  Alabama       38   Arkansas       14   home   21.0   51.8   72.8
24-Sep-11  LSU           41   Arkansas       17   home   21.0   51.8   72.8
3-Sep-11   LSU           40   Oregon         27   ntrl   13.0   59.8   72.8
19-Nov-11  Michigan      45   Nebraska       17   home   24.5   48.1   72.6
22-Oct-11  Stanford      65   Washington     21   home   32.5   39.9   72.4
12-Nov-11  Arkansas      49   Tennessee       7   home   31.5   40.8   72.3
17-Sep-11  Wisconsin     49   Nor. Illinois   7   ntrl   33.0   39.0   72.0
25-Nov-11  Houston       48   Tulsa          16   road   29.5   42.5   72.0
26-Nov-11  Southern Cal  50   UCLA            0   home   35.5   36.3   71.8
3-Dec-11   Clemson       38   Virginia Tech  10   ntrl   26.0   45.4   71.4
18-Nov-11  Iowa St       37   Oklahoma St    31   home    7.0   64.2   71.2
24-Sep-11  Arizona St    43   Southern Cal   22   home   18.0   53.2   71.2
5-Nov-11   LSU            9   Alabama         6   road    7.0   63.8   70.8
8-Oct-11   Alabama       34   Vanderbilt      0   home   27.5   43.2   70.7
1-Oct-11   Alabama       38   Florida        10   road   27.5   42.9   70.4
1-Oct-11   Michigan      58   Minnesota       0   home   39.5   30.9   70.4
3-Dec-11   Baylor        48   Texas          24   home   21.0   49.1   70.1
24-Sep-11  LSU           47   West Virginia  21   road   26.5   43.3   69.8
15-Oct-11  LSU           38   Tennessee       7   road   29.0   40.8   69.8
16-Sep-11  Boise St      40   Toledo         15   road   26.0   43.6   69.6
3-Sep-11   Oklahoma      47   Tulsa          14   home   27.0   42.5   69.5
17-Sep-11  Oklahoma St   59   Tulsa          33   road   26.5   42.5   69.0
6-Oct-11   Oregon        43   California     15   home   24.5   43.9   68.4
8-Oct-11   LSU           41   Florida        11   home   25.5   42.9   68.4
29-Oct-11  Nebraska      24   Michigan St     3   home   18.0   50.4   68.4
1-Oct-11   Clemson       23   Virginia Tech   3   road   23.0   45.4   68.4

How about the biggest upsets? We can look at that by comparing the SRS scores of the two teams:

Date        Team            PF   Opp             PA   H/R/N  TmSRS  OpSRS  Diff
17-Nov-11   Alabama-Birm.   34   Southern Miss   31   home   17.2   44.5   27.3
18-Nov-11   Iowa St         37   Oklahoma St     31   home   40.0   64.2   24.2
22-Oct-11   Texas Tech      41   Oklahoma        38   road   37.0   58.7   21.7
1-Oct-11    Central Mich.   48   Northern Ill.   41   home   21.8   39.0   17.2
20-Oct-11   Alabama-Birm.   26   Central Florida 24   home   17.2   33.7   16.5
3-Sep-11    Sacramento St   29   Oregon St       28   road   17.8   34.1   16.3
10-Sep-11   Marshall        26   Southern Miss   20   home   29.0   44.5   15.5
29-Oct-11   Ohio State      33   Wisconsin       29   home   43.2   58.5   15.3
1-Oct-11    SMU             40   TCU             33   road   34.3   49.4   15.1
5-Sep-11    Maryland        32   Miami FL        24   home   27.5   41.9   14.4
25-Nov-11   Colorado        17   Utah            14   road   28.1   42.5   14.4
3-Sep-11    Richmond        23   Duke            21   road   13.8   27.9   14.1
24-Sep-11   Colorado St     35   Utah St         34   road   21.7   35.8   14.1
17-Sep-11   UNLV            40   Hawai`i         20   home   16.3   30.1   13.8
8-Oct-11    Wake Forest     35   Florida St      30   home   34.6   47.0   12.4
5-Nov-11    Iowa            24   Michigan        16   home   42.9   55.0   12.1
29-Oct-11   Minnesota       22   Iowa            21   home   30.9   42.9   12.0
22-Oct-11   Bowling Green   13   Temple          10   home   28.6   40.4   11.8
12-Nov-11   Washington St   37   Arizona St      27   home   34.4   46.2   11.8
24-Sep-11   Syracuse        33   Toledo          30   home   31.9   43.6   11.7
19-Nov-11   Virginia        14   Florida St      13   road   35.5   47.0   11.5
8-Oct-11    Buffalo         38   Ohio U.         37   home   23.8   35.3   11.5
10-Sep-11   Kansas          45   Northern Ill.   42   home   27.6   39.0   11.4
21-Oct-11   Syracuse        49   West Virginia   23   home   31.9   43.3   11.4
17-Sep-11   Army            21   Northwestern    14   home   27.0   37.9   10.9
22-Oct-11   Eastern Mich.   14   Western Mich.   10   home   25.5   36.2   10.7
1-Oct-11    Auburn          16   South Carolina  13   road   38.6   49.3   10.7
1-Oct-11    Hawai`i         44   Louisiana Tech  26   road   30.1   40.6   10.5
5-Nov-11    Northwestern    28   Nebraska        25   road   37.9   48.1   10.2

Those three biggest upsets had large BCS ramifications. Southern Miss may have made the BCS as a 12-1 conference champ riding an 11-game winning streak if not for the shocking loss to UAB two weeks before upsetting Houston. OSU, of course, would have made the BCS game if not for the Iowa State loss, while Oklahoma’s loss to Texas Tech was the first in a long line of upsets among the BCS contenders.

Oklahoma State vs. Alabama

Why did the Cowboys top the Tide? Partly because of the harder SOS, but another reason was the Crimson Tide’s decision not to obliterate the three weak non-conference opponents it faced:

Date        Team          PF    Opp           PA   H/R   MOV    SOS    SRS
3-Dec-11    Oklahoma St   44    Oklahoma      10   hm    27.5   58.7   86.2
12-Nov-11   Oklahoma St   66    Texas Tech     6   rd    43.5   37.0   80.5
29-Oct-11   Oklahoma St   59    Baylor        24   hm    28.0   51.0   79.0
22-Oct-11   Oklahoma St   45    Missouri      24   rd    24.0   49.3   73.3
17-Sep-11   Oklahoma St   59    Tulsa         33   rd    26.5   42.5   69.0
15-Oct-11   Oklahoma St   38    Texas         26   rd    15.0   49.1   64.1
24-Sep-11   Oklahoma St   30    Texas A&M     29   rd     7.0   52.4   59.4
8-Oct-11    Oklahoma St   70    Kansas        28   hm    31.5   27.6   59.1
8-Sep-11    Oklahoma St   37    Arizona       14   hm    20.0   37.8   57.8
5-Nov-11    Oklahoma St   52    Kansas St     45   hm     7.0   48.2   55.2
3-Sep-11    Oklahoma St   61    Louisiana-La. 34   hm    24.0   30.3   54.3
18-Nov-11   Oklahoma St   31    Iowa St       37   rd    -7.0   40.0   33.0
            Oklahoma St   49.3  Average       25.8       20.6   43.7   64.2

24-Sep-11   Alabama   38        Arkansas      14   hm    21.0   51.8   72.8
8-Oct-11    Alabama   34        Vanderbilt     0   hm    27.5   43.2   70.7
1-Oct-11    Alabama   38        Florida       10   rd    27.5   42.9   70.4
22-Oct-11   Alabama   37        Tennessee      6   hm    26.0   40.8   66.8
26-Nov-11   Alabama   42        Auburn        14   rd    27.5   38.6   66.1
15-Oct-11   Alabama   52        Mississippi    7   rd    36.0   28.6   64.6
10-Sep-11   Alabama   27        Penn State    11   rd    19.0   44.4   63.4
12-Nov-11   Alabama   24        Miss. St       7   rd    20.0   42.6   62.6
5-Nov-11    Alabama    6        LSU            9   hm    -7.0   65.8   58.8
17-Sep-11   Alabama   41        North Texas    0   hm    31.0   26.2   57.2
3-Sep-11    Alabama   48        Kent St        7   hm    31.0   25.9   56.9
19-Nov-11   Alabama   45        Georgia Sout. 21   hm    21.0   34.3   55.3
            Alabama   36.0      Average        8.8       23.4   40.4   63.8

As a fan, I don’t love that Alabama scheduled Kent State, North Texas and FCS Georgia Southern. That said, those games are probably not very telling when it comes to Alabama. Remove them, and Alabama’s line reads 21.9–44.3–66.3, which actually puts them ahead of LSU. Of course, remove Western Kentucky and FCS Northwestern State for LSU, and their line jumps to 23.3–44.8–68.1. So perhaps a two-point line in favor of LSU — maybe 3.5 if you consider the Sugar Bowl a partial home game — would be appropriate for the Tigers.

But as good as Alabama is, we can’t avoid the fact that they got into the game in large part due to reputation. The SRS says their toughest five opponents were LSU, Arkansas, Penn State, Vanderbilt and Florida. Alabama’s 2nd best win came over the 29th best SRS team, and the top win came against the SRS #12. That’s just not an impressive set of heads. Had LSU lost to Alabama, they would have had a much stronger case. LSU would have had Arkansas and Florida, and West Virginia and Penn State are interchangeable. But the Tigers would have the win over Oregon compared to the win against Vanderbilt. And that’s an enormous difference.

For Oklahoma State, they had a bunch of impressive wins. They beat all of Big 12 top teams; in fact, they went 6-0 against the Big 12 teams that are in the SRS top 25. But the loss to Iowa State was ultimately too large to ignore.

As 70 teams prepare for 35 Bowl games, we can set imaginary point spreads for every game. I’ve done that for you, below:

Date     Bowl              Favorite        Underdog        F_SRS  U_SRS Spread Avg
Dec. 30  Insight           Oklahoma        Iowa            58.7   42.9  15.8   50.8
Dec. 31  Meineke Car Care  Texas A&M       Northwestern    52.4   37.9  14.5   45.2
Dec. 29  Alamo             Baylor          Washington      51.0   39.9  11.1   45.5
Jan. 3   Sugar             Michigan        Virginia Tech   55.0   45.4   9.6   50.2
Dec. 22  Las Vegas         Boise St        Arizona St      55.1   46.2   8.9   50.7
Dec. 21  Poinsettia        TCU             Louisiana Tech  49.4   40.6   8.8   45.0
Dec. 26  Independence      Missouri        North Carolina  49.3   40.6   8.7   45.0
Dec. 30  Music City        Mississippi St  Wake Forest     42.6   34.6   8.0   38.6
Dec. 17  New Mexico        Temple          Wyoming         40.4   32.4   8.0   36.4
Dec. 17  New Orleans       San Diego St    Louisiana-Laf.  37.8   30.3   7.5   34.1
Dec. 28  Military Bowl     Toledo          Air Force       43.6   36.4   7.2   40.0
Jan. 2   TicketCity        Houston         Penn State      51.1   44.4   6.7   47.8
Dec. 24  Hawaii            Southern Miss   Nevada          44.5   38.6   5.9   41.6
Jan. 7   BBVA Compass Bowl Pittsburgh      SMU             39.9   34.3   5.6   37.1
Jan. 2   Fiesta            Oklahoma St     Stanford        64.2   58.8   5.4   61.5
Dec. 28  Holiday           Texas           California      49.1   43.9   5.2   46.5
Jan. 6   Cotton            Arkansas        Kansas St       51.8   48.2   3.6   50.0
Dec. 20  St. Petersburg    Florida Int'l   Marshall        32.4   29.0   3.4   30.7
Dec. 31  Kraft             Illinois        UCLA            39.5   36.3   3.2   37.9
Dec. 31  Chick-fil-A       Auburn          Virginia        38.6   35.5   3.1   37.1
Dec. 29  Champs Sports     Notre Dame      Florida St      49.5   47.0   2.5   48.3
Jan. 9   BCS NCG           LSU             Alabama         65.8   63.8   2.0   64.8
Dec. 27  Belk              Louisville      North Car. St   37.9   35.9   2.0   36.9
Dec. 31  Sun               Utah            Georgia Tech    42.5   40.6   1.9   41.6
Dec. 30  Armed Forces      Tulsa           Brigham Young   42.5   40.9   1.6   41.7
Dec. 27  Little Caesars    Western Mich.   Purdue          36.2   34.6   1.6   35.4
Jan. 4   Orange            Clemson         West Virginia   44.6   43.3   1.3   44.0
Jan. 2   Rose Bowl         Oregon          Wisconsin       59.8   58.5   1.3   59.2
Jan. 2   Capital One       South Carolina  Nebraska        49.3   48.1   1.2   48.7
Jan. 2   Outback           Michigan St     Georgia         50.4   49.5   0.9   50.0
Dec. 17  Idaho Potato Bowl Utah St         Ohio U.         35.8   35.3   0.5   35.6
Jan. 2   Gator             Ohio State      Florida         43.2   42.9   0.3   43.1
Dec. 30  Pinstripe         Iowa St         Rutgers         40.0   39.7   0.3   39.9
Jan. 8   GoDaddy.com       Arkansas St     Northern Ill.   39.1   39.0   0.1   39.1
Dec. 31  Liberty           Cincinnati      Vanderbilt      43.2   43.2   0.0   43.2

We can also sort my highest average SRS score, i.e., the matchup between the best teams:

Date     Bowl              Favorite        Underdog        F_SRS  U_SRS Spread Avg
Jan. 9   BCS NCG           LSU             Alabama         65.8   63.8   2.0   64.8
Jan. 2   Fiesta            Oklahoma St     Stanford        64.2   58.8   5.4   61.5
Jan. 2   Rose Bowl         Oregon          Wisconsin       59.8   58.5   1.3   59.2
Dec. 30  Insight           Oklahoma        Iowa            58.7   42.9  15.8   50.8
Dec. 22  Las Vegas         Boise St        Arizona St      55.1   46.2   8.9   50.7
Jan. 3   Sugar             Michigan        Virginia Tech   55.0   45.4   9.6   50.2
Jan. 6   Cotton            Arkansas        Kansas St       51.8   48.2   3.6   50.0
Jan. 2   Outback           Michigan St     Georgia         50.4   49.5   0.9   50.0
Jan. 2   Capital One       South Carolina  Nebraska        49.3   48.1   1.2   48.7
Dec. 29  Champs Sports     Notre Dame      Florida St      49.5   47.0   2.5   48.3
Jan. 2   TicketCity        Houston         Penn State      51.1   44.4   6.7   47.8
Dec. 28  Holiday           Texas           California      49.1   43.9   5.2   46.5
Dec. 29  Alamo             Baylor          Washington      51.0   39.9  11.1   45.5
Dec. 31  Meineke Car Care  Texas A&M       Northwestern    52.4   37.9  14.5   45.2
Dec. 21  Poinsettia        TCU             Louisiana Tech  49.4   40.6   8.8   45.0
Dec. 26  Independence      Missouri        North Carolina  49.3   40.6   8.7   45.0
Jan. 4   Orange            Clemson         West Virginia   44.6   43.3   1.3   44.0
Dec. 31  Liberty           Cincinnati      Vanderbilt      43.2   43.2   0.0   43.2
Jan. 2   Gator             Ohio State      Florida         43.2   42.9   0.3   43.1
Dec. 30  Armed Forces      Tulsa           Brigham Young   42.5   40.9   1.6   41.7
Dec. 24  Hawaii            Southern Miss   Nevada          44.5   38.6   5.9   41.6
Dec. 31  Sun               Utah            Georgia Tech    42.5   40.6   1.9   41.6
Dec. 28  Military Bowl     Toledo          Air Force       43.6   36.4   7.2   40.0
Dec. 30  Pinstripe         Iowa St         Rutgers         40.0   39.7   0.3   39.9
Jan. 8   GoDaddy.com       Arkansas St     Northern Ill.   39.1   39.0   0.1   39.1
Dec. 30  Music City        Mississippi St  Wake Forest     42.6   34.6   8.0   38.6
Dec. 31  Kraft             Illinois        UCLA            39.5   36.3   3.2   37.9
Jan. 7   BBVA Compass Bowl Pittsburgh      SMU             39.9   34.3   5.6   37.1
Dec. 31  Chick-fil-A       Auburn          Virginia        38.6   35.5   3.1   37.1
Dec. 27  Belk              Louisville      North Car. St   37.9   35.9   2.0   36.9
Dec. 17  New Mexico        Temple          Wyoming         40.4   32.4   8.0   36.4
Dec. 17  Idaho Potato Bowl Utah St         Ohio U.         35.8   35.3   0.5   35.6
Dec. 27  Little Caesars    Western Mich.   Purdue          36.2   34.6   1.6   35.4
Dec. 17  New Orleans       San Diego St    Louisiana-Laf.  37.8   30.3   7.5   34.1
Dec. 20  St. Petersburg    Florida Int'l   Marshall        32.4   29.0   3.4   30.7

Finally, here is the listing by date:

Date     Bowl              Favorite        Underdog        F_SRS  U_SRS Spread Avg
Dec. 17  New Mexico        Temple          Wyoming         40.4   32.4   8.0   36.4
Dec. 17  New Orleans       San Diego St    Louisiana-Laf.  37.8   30.3   7.5   34.1
Dec. 17  Idaho Potato Bowl Utah St         Ohio U.         35.8   35.3   0.5   35.6
Dec. 20  St. Petersburg    Florida Int'l   Marshall        32.4   29.0   3.4   30.7
Dec. 21  Poinsettia        TCU             Louisiana Tech  49.4   40.6   8.8   45.0
Dec. 22  Las Vegas         Boise St        Arizona St      55.1   46.2   8.9   50.7
Dec. 24  Hawaii            Southern Miss   Nevada          44.5   38.6   5.9   41.6
Dec. 26  Independence      Missouri        North Carolina  49.3   40.6   8.7   45.0
Dec. 27  Belk              Louisville      North Car. St   37.9   35.9   2.0   36.9
Dec. 27  Little Caesars    Western Mich.   Purdue          36.2   34.6   1.6   35.4
Dec. 28  Military Bowl     Toledo          Air Force       43.6   36.4   7.2   40.0
Dec. 28  Holiday           Texas           California      49.1   43.9   5.2   46.5
Dec. 29  Alamo             Baylor          Washington      51.0   39.9  11.1   45.5
Dec. 29  Champs Sports     Notre Dame      Florida St      49.5   47.0   2.5   48.3
Dec. 30  Insight           Oklahoma        Iowa            58.7   42.9  15.8   50.8
Dec. 30  Music City        Mississippi St  Wake Forest     42.6   34.6   8.0   38.6
Dec. 30  Armed Forces      Tulsa           Brigham Young   42.5   40.9   1.6   41.7
Dec. 30  Pinstripe         Iowa St         Rutgers         40.0   39.7   0.3   39.9
Dec. 31  Meineke Car Care  Texas A&M       Northwestern    52.4   37.9  14.5   45.2
Dec. 31  Kraft             Illinois        UCLA            39.5   36.3   3.2   37.9
Dec. 31  Chick-fil-A       Auburn          Virginia        38.6   35.5   3.1   37.1
Dec. 31  Sun               Utah            Georgia Tech    42.5   40.6   1.9   41.6
Dec. 31  Liberty           Cincinnati      Vanderbilt      43.2   43.2   0.0   43.2
Jan. 2   TicketCity        Houston         Penn State      51.1   44.4   6.7   47.8
Jan. 2   Fiesta            Oklahoma St     Stanford        64.2   58.8   5.4   61.5
Jan. 2   Rose Bowl         Oregon          Wisconsin       59.8   58.5   1.3   59.2
Jan. 2   Capital One       South Carolina  Nebraska        49.3   48.1   1.2   48.7
Jan. 2   Outback           Michigan St     Georgia         50.4   49.5   0.9   50.0
Jan. 2   Gator             Ohio State      Florida         43.2   42.9   0.3   43.1
Jan. 3   Sugar             Michigan        Virginia Tech   55.0   45.4   9.6   50.2
Jan. 4   Orange            Clemson         West Virginia   44.6   43.3   1.3   44.0
Jan. 6   Cotton            Arkansas        Kansas St       51.8   48.2   3.6   50.0
Jan. 7   BBVA Compass Bowl Pittsburgh      SMU             39.9   34.3   5.6   37.1
Jan. 8   GoDaddy.com       Arkansas St     Northern Ill.   39.1   39.0   0.1   39.1
Jan. 9   BCS NCG           LSU             Alabama         65.8   63.8   2.0   64.8

  • Pingback: BCS Fail: Alabama, not Oklahoma State, heads to the BCS National Championship Game « LiveBall Sports

  • nnailling

    I’m not sure about A&M at #11.

  • Chase Stuart

    Hardest SOS in CFB + 5 blowout wins + 6 one score games.  That’s going to translate to a top-15 ranking in most seasons.  Just so happens that A&M went 1-5 in those close games, but that has very little meaning from a predictive standpoint (which is the goal of the SRS).

    No doubt it “looks funky” but it makes perfect sense.  Think of it this way: A&M outscored its opponents by 9 points per game (this is true, unadjusted MOV) playing the B12 schedule + Arkansas.  Baylor outscored its opponents by 8 points per game playing the B12 schedule + TCU.  With those facts in place, hard to have Baylor come out ahead of A&M.  (And, of course, Kansas State played the B12 schedule + Miami, but only outscored its opponents by about 6 points per game.  So the SRS is going to have to go A&M>>Baylor>>Kansas State.)

  • sswoods

    Not to mention that AM’s six losses are to Arkansas, Oklahoma, OK State, Texas, Missouri, K-State.   And all but one – Oklahoma – were within one score, meaning they could have gone either way.  Fair or not, I consider AM to be roughly the same as Arkansas – after typing that I looked up to see AM a spot above Arkansas in the SRS, ha – which is about the same as Texas, Missouri, K-State, Baylor.  Missouri is in the same boat, but without the expectations and a conference schedule that was front loaded, most don’t realize just how good the Tigers really are.  Not good enough to beat the national contenders, but just under that.  In the SEC, that would get you an East Division Championship.  (Plus conference titles in the ACC and Big East.)

  • Clark

    And not to menton that A&M and Arkansas played head-to-head, and it came down to the wire.

  • David Kilpatrick-White

    Who cares…the sucky part is Alabama v LSU again. OSU’s loss was bad, but explainable…most importantly Alabama v LSU the first time was basically the equivalent of a plus 1 format…LSU shouldn’t have to play the same team from their own SEC division twice, especially sense LSU already beat them at THEIR place.

  • Pingback: Don’t Like Michigan vs. Virginia Tech? Who Should The Sugar Bowl Have Taken? at sugarbowl.hoops227.us

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mike-DeNora/615624807 Mike DeNora

    I read your article in ESPN the magazine. I love your rating system. It shows the true value of a team.  It is simple and easy to understand. In the article it says that the BCS forbids putting margin of victory into their formula. That’s fine, you could just put a cap on the margin of victory in the SRS. I would put the cap at 40 since the biggest comeback in history of college football is said to be 35. Your system would allow for less debate for who really are the top teams and each team would know exactly how many points that would have to win by going into the final game. The SRS is the future of college football!!!

  • http://twitter.com/danieldeceuster Daniel Deceuster

    I’ve got an even better system for you. It uses a statistical analysis called the Chi-Square. Here’s how it works. You need to determine the average number of points scored and allowed by each team. You then make a second calculation, an expectation. What you want to find out is two things. First, how many points will this team score compared to their opponents average? Second, how many points will this team allow compared to their opponents average.

    Hopefully you are still with me. Let’s say Team A will play Team B. Team A averages 21 points and allows 7. Team B averages 28 points and allows 14. Let’s say Team A on average scores twice as many points as their opponents allow and gives up half as many points as they normally score. That means from Team A’s perspective, you would expect them to score twice as many as Team B allows (14) or 28 points. You would expect them to hold Team B to half their average (28) or 14 points. So from Team A’s perspective you would expect them to win 28-14.

    Now let’s say Team B on average scores three times as many points as their opponents allow and allows only one third their opponents average. From their perspective you would expect them to score three times as many points as Team A allows (7) or 21 points. You would expect them to allow 1/3 of Team A’s average (21) or 7 points. From Team B’s perspective, you would expect them to win 21-7.

    For a Chi-Square to work, you have to have an expected outcome. Now, let’s say the final score was Team A victory of 42-3. They were expected to win 28-14. They scored more than expected and allowed less than expected. The Chi-Square analyzes the difference between the expectation and the outcome to determine statistical significance. The further off the outcome is from the expectation, the more significant.

    Now from Team B’s perspective, they were supposed to win 21-7, but lost 42-3. They didn’t win. They didn’t score as much as expected. They allowed more than expected. That would be a significant loss.

    Oklahoma State is a good example this year. They had a huge win over Oklahoma and a terrible loss against Iowa State. Both would have big Chi-Square values, but one would add to their score while the other detracted. At the end of the season, you look at how everyone performed compared to expectations. Calculate the differences. Those who overachieved get the highest rankings. Those who underachieved get the lowest.

    In this regard it doesn’t matter who you play. It doesn’t matter what the margin of victory is. The only thing that matters is creating a fair expectation (Vegas line could do this) and then analyzing how each team performs in regards to their expectation. What do you think? You can see more from my previous posts analyzing this at http://www.collegefootballcafeteria.com if you want.

  • Pingback: Throwing a few numbers against the Outback Bowl wall and seeing what sticks | Get The Picture

  • Pingback: Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas: Texas A&M vs. Northwestern | The … | News Strom

  • Pingback: College football primer: Comparing week 1 results to last year’s SRS