Comments on: Sentences to ponder

By: Joseph White

Joseph White — Thu, 06 May 2010 17:51:44 +0000

If you love R&B music then you gotta love Chris Brown also. He’s been my music idol for the past few years. ”

By: Zennie Abraham

Zennie Abraham — Mon, 22 Mar 2010 06:45:52 +0000

It’s a seductive way of thinking and certainly gives added value to the Gilman / Coryell / Zampese system, but the problem is the same one that gave rise to the Bill Walsh Offense. It’s the probability of completing passes thrown deep down field versus those thrown short or medium range, then getting YAC.

Remember the objective of the Walsh Offense was to create the possibility of the obviously open receiver, then creating space for the receiver to run. That objective has escaped many of the modern Walsh systems, and indeed the one system where it’s obvious was not created by Coach Walsh. It’s the Colts Offense. Perhaps the most efficient passing system today next to the Saints’ Offense.

By: OldSouth

OldSouth — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 17:56:06 +0000

Brendan, you’re asking for more context than is necessary for the analysis. Also, you can easily infer the standard deviations from the data given.

50% completion on 14 yards per attempt = 14 yard SD
100% completion on 14 yards per attempt = 0 yard SD

As for a confidence interval or attempts per game, you really don’t need that information for this analysis.

Humpty dumpty sat on a wall
Humpty dumpty had a great fall

You’re arguing that we can’t understand that story because we don’t know why humpty was sitting on the wall.

By: Mr.Murder

Mr.Murder — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 18:58:21 +0000

Playoffs change the percentages, for many reasons. Intervals probably produce the same scoring opportunities as before. All things being equal, consistency numbers would arguably decrease. One system is more of a self correcting one in that its peaks still produce scores. The other doesn’t calculate a loss in planning and when that occurs it is to the detriment of the entire system it utilizes.

There are going to be situations you must play from the lost yard or lost down aspect. Only one of those two models still works.

By: Anon

Anon — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 17:00:27 +0000

Even the thoughts so far though offer a conclusion that might be lost on some:

If you’re going to throw it short, you better be good at it.

By: Friday morning buffet « Get The Picture

Friday morning buffet « Get The Picture — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 12:38:23 +0000

[...] Chris Brown highlights something I’ve noted before: completion percentage has to be analyzed in context. It’s more important in some offenses than in others. [...]

By: Jim

Jim — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 00:53:24 +0000

Buckeye- You can change it to 2.4 YPC than, it does not matter because its a thought experiment and no one in reality can predicatively be 100 percent
Brendan- Since this was a though experiment and he has not yet published any findings yet its premature to worry about those things.

By: Brendan

Brendan — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 00:39:31 +0000

All the statistics here are kinda dumb because they don’t include any concept of standard deviation, confidence interval, or attempts per game. Without those measures, I can picture a team that averages 14 yards per attempt with a 50% completion rate but scores 0 points per game (very high standard deviation, attempts per game could be high or low), or a team that averages 4 yards per completion yet scores 40 points per game (very low standard deviation, attempts per game could be high or low). You get the idea.

My point is that yards per attempt and completion percentage only tell a third of the story; you need to quantify the frequency of “droughts” to tell another third, and the number of attempts per game tell the final third.

By: Buckeye

Buckeye — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 23:06:12 +0000

Well said, Tom. I was thinking the same thing re: 4th and 1. Why wouldn’t the team with 100% pass completion percentage go for it with a pass play?

By: OldSouth

OldSouth — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 22:30:15 +0000

yay kurtosis