Worldly wisdom

For it is in the essence of his behaviour that he should be eccentric, unconventional and rash in the eyes of average opinion. If he is successful, that will only confirm the general belief in his rashness; and if in the short run he is unsuccessful, which is very likely, he will not receive much mercy. Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.

That is Keynes, not talking about coaching football, though it certainly applies.

  • BC
  • Tysen Allumbaugh

    After reading the Keynes link, I began to think of the NFL draft how this relates to it. Part V #4 especially

    …For most of these persons are, in fact, largely concerned, not with making superior long-term forecasts of the probable yield of an investment over its whole life, but with foreseeing changes in the conventional basis of valuation a short time ahead of the general public. They are concerned, not with what an investment is really worth to a man who buys it “for keeps”, but with what the market will value it at, under the influence of mass psychology, three months or a year hence. Moreover, this behaviour is not the outcome of a wrong-headed propensity. It is an inevitable result of an investment market organised along the lines described. For it is not sensible to pay 25 for an investment of which you believe the prospective yield to justify a value of 30, if you also believe that the market will value it at 20 three months hence

    This to me is Mel Kiper Jr, Todd McShay, etc. To me, they don’t place nearly enough importance on the investment for the man who, as Keynes described, buys it “for keeps”. I also believe the important word is MASS PYSCHOLOGY. Classic examples of this are players who are deemed “workout warriors” or players who drastically improved their draft stock during Pro-Days, Combines or whatever. These players, through Mel or whoever, raise there worth/value. The mass pyschology comes in when these players are pimped on ESPN or whatever, the perception has greatly improved, which allows draft “experts” to value these players higher despite not considering the long-term ramifications of drafting this player.

    This is my first post, hopefully it made some sense. Love the site!

  • Perry

    The quote is Keynes throwing his arms up at the structure of markets and their valuations leading to short term decision making over long term progress. However, there are plenty of teams such as the Packers this year or even Barcelona in el futbol that really dedicate their core focus on long-term building of the brand over short term fixes.

  • quigley

    I can certainly understand moving to NYC single but can’t fathom why you’d move there engaged (congrats regardless). Digging out that quote exemplifies what makes this site great.

  • Trevor

    Mike Leach anyone? He was eccentric and rash, especially more so given the success of the system, but in the end, his quirkiness was never viewed as legitimate success because it wasn’t “ideal” football.