Comments on: Thinking about thoughts, fourth downs, and the nature of evidence http://smartfootball.com/grab-bag/some-thoughts-about-thinking Analysis and strategy by Chris. Fri, 12 Mar 2010 23:13:20 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: JeffW http://smartfootball.com/grab-bag/some-thoughts-about-thinking/comment-page-2#comment-2678 JeffW Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:26:10 +0000 http://smartfootball.com/?p=701#comment-2678 The real story, as noted by Kilgore, is the mismanagement of the last 3 minutes of the game, not the 4th and 2 call. The Patriots were clearly not decided on the course of action if they don't get the 3rd down conversion. This is evidenced by the personnel confusion. The best call is to run the ball and keep the clock moving, and possibly, shorten a 4th down attempt (if they "knew" they were going to go for it). They may even convert it right then. The factors preceding the 4th down call (no timeouts, clock is not moving, potential turnover near the red zone) count in the call to go for it or not. The decision cannot be made in a vacuum. The Colts out play-called them on third down with the blitz. The offenses calls for 3rd and 4th down leave much to be desired. While going for it seems courageous and maybe even smart, the game management before that point was pretty awful. The real story, as noted by Kilgore, is the mismanagement of the last 3 minutes of the game, not the 4th and 2 call. The Patriots were clearly not decided on the course of action if they don’t get the 3rd down conversion. This is evidenced by the personnel confusion. The best call is to run the ball and keep the clock moving, and possibly, shorten a 4th down attempt (if they “knew” they were going to go for it). They may even convert it right then.

The factors preceding the 4th down call (no timeouts, clock is not moving, potential turnover near the red zone) count in the call to go for it or not. The decision cannot be made in a vacuum.

The Colts out play-called them on third down with the blitz. The offenses calls for 3rd and 4th down leave much to be desired. While going for it seems courageous and maybe even smart, the game management before that point was pretty awful.

]]> By: Bill45. http://smartfootball.com/grab-bag/some-thoughts-about-thinking/comment-page-2#comment-2655 Bill45. Sun, 22 Nov 2009 05:31:17 +0000 http://smartfootball.com/?p=701#comment-2655 Shane you can look at sort of the opposite situation where NE received the kickoff at the beginning of the game. It's 2 minutes into the first Quarter and it's 4th and 2 at the same position on the field. The calculation is vastly different. No ebb and flow has been established as it had already been in the 4th qtr. of the actual game. Winning or losing is still basically a 50/50 proposition at this point if he considers the 2 teams as roughly equal overall. So at this point he's playing for field position and a punt is probably the call. In the real game with about 2 min. left field position is not as big a factor. The Colts offense seems to have the advantage over his NE defense and situation and history has informed him that NE is unlikely to be able to stop them from scoring a TD. Shane you can look at sort of the opposite situation where NE received the kickoff at the beginning of the game. It’s 2 minutes into the first Quarter and it’s 4th and 2 at the same position on the field. The calculation is vastly different. No ebb and flow has been established as it had already been in the 4th qtr. of the actual game. Winning or losing is still basically a 50/50 proposition at this point if he considers the 2 teams as roughly equal overall. So at this point he’s playing for field position and a punt is probably the call. In the real game with about 2 min. left field position is not as big a factor. The Colts offense seems to have the advantage over his NE defense and situation and history has informed him that NE is unlikely to be able to stop them from scoring a TD.

]]> By: Shane M http://smartfootball.com/grab-bag/some-thoughts-about-thinking/comment-page-2#comment-2652 Shane M Sun, 22 Nov 2009 03:48:43 +0000 http://smartfootball.com/?p=701#comment-2652 Is the decision to go for it on 4th and short deep in your own territory consistent with other decisions made throughout the game? I guess I'm trying to understand the universe of decisions where it does make sense to punt the ball the Peyton, or do you pretty much go for it on 4th and relatively short the entire game? Is the decision to go for it on 4th and short deep in your own territory consistent with other decisions made throughout the game? I guess I’m trying to understand the universe of decisions where it does make sense to punt the ball the Peyton, or do you pretty much go for it on 4th and relatively short the entire game?

]]> By: Bill45. http://smartfootball.com/grab-bag/some-thoughts-about-thinking/comment-page-2#comment-2630 Bill45. Sat, 21 Nov 2009 02:13:58 +0000 http://smartfootball.com/?p=701#comment-2630 Another great post and discussion Chris. If BB's calculation was that if the ball's in Brady's hands we win and if the ball's in Manning's hands we lose then he absolutely made the right decision to go for it. So they didn't make it. BB needed to carry his original calculation on through to the end of the game let the Colts score on thier next play from scrimage putting the ball back in Brady's hands for the final drive. If he had punted the calculation would been to defend more or less conventionally. But what do I know, I can barely play checkers. Another great post and discussion Chris.
If BB’s calculation was that if the ball’s in Brady’s hands we win and if the ball’s in Manning’s hands we lose then he absolutely made the right decision to go for it. So they didn’t make it. BB needed to carry his original calculation on through to the end of the game let the Colts score on thier next play from scrimage putting the ball back in Brady’s hands for the final drive.
If he had punted the calculation would been to defend more or less conventionally.
But what do I know, I can barely play checkers.

]]> By: Keyes? http://smartfootball.com/grab-bag/some-thoughts-about-thinking/comment-page-2#comment-2628 Keyes? Fri, 20 Nov 2009 23:44:01 +0000 http://smartfootball.com/?p=701#comment-2628 I think you mean Keynes. I think you mean Keynes.

]]> By: John Z http://smartfootball.com/grab-bag/some-thoughts-about-thinking/comment-page-2#comment-2622 John Z Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:30:24 +0000 http://smartfootball.com/?p=701#comment-2622 Funny how you stick to facts and common sense with football, yet with politics you throw them out the window with your obvious slant towards liberalism. Funny how you stick to facts and common sense with football, yet with politics you throw them out the window with your obvious slant towards liberalism.

]]> By: wheaton4prez http://smartfootball.com/grab-bag/some-thoughts-about-thinking/comment-page-2#comment-2609 wheaton4prez Fri, 20 Nov 2009 07:10:46 +0000 http://smartfootball.com/?p=701#comment-2609 Is this article about the difference between liberals and conservatives? ;) Is this article about the difference between liberals and conservatives? ;)

]]> By: Chris G http://smartfootball.com/grab-bag/some-thoughts-about-thinking/comment-page-2#comment-2604 Chris G Fri, 20 Nov 2009 02:11:16 +0000 http://smartfootball.com/?p=701#comment-2604 As a philosopher who has done some game theory/decision theory, I have to say that you are right on the money. Experiments have shown time and again that people's instincts in complex decisions are seldom correct. I'm not against going with the gut, but seldom do we make the most "rational" choice as dictated by the numbers. Belichick made a good call (rationally speaking), even though it turned out bad. As a philosopher who has done some game theory/decision theory, I have to say that you are right on the money. Experiments have shown time and again that people’s instincts in complex decisions are seldom correct. I’m not against going with the gut, but seldom do we make the most “rational” choice as dictated by the numbers. Belichick made a good call (rationally speaking), even though it turned out bad.

]]> By: Checkdowns: Smart Football Retrospective on 4th-and-2-gate | Football Throwbacks http://smartfootball.com/grab-bag/some-thoughts-about-thinking/comment-page-2#comment-2599 Checkdowns: Smart Football Retrospective on 4th-and-2-gate | Football Throwbacks Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:43:14 +0000 http://smartfootball.com/?p=701#comment-2599 [...] 2009 One of my favorite football blogs is Chris Brown’s Smart Football, and yesterday he had a very thoughtful post about Bill Belichick’s controversial decision: “It’s not really fair to pick on Tony [...] [...] 2009 One of my favorite football blogs is Chris Brown’s Smart Football, and yesterday he had a very thoughtful post about Bill Belichick’s controversial decision: “It’s not really fair to pick on Tony [...]

]]> By: feralboy12 http://smartfootball.com/grab-bag/some-thoughts-about-thinking/comment-page-1#comment-2597 feralboy12 Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:09:49 +0000 http://smartfootball.com/?p=701#comment-2597 I'm one of a gazillion people who blogged about this, but I still haven't seen anyone else make a couple of points. Football has too many variables to create a model using linear math like simple percentage calculations--the calculations refer to situations that can continually be broken down (are we using league averages? Patriots' averages? All 4th and 2, or last two minutes percentages? etc.). Sometimes you put the game in the hands of your best player. Tom Brady needs two yards. Who's betting against him? I’m one of a gazillion people who blogged about this, but I still haven’t seen anyone else make a couple of points.
Football has too many variables to create a model using linear math like simple percentage calculations–the calculations refer to situations that can continually be broken down (are we using league averages? Patriots’ averages? All 4th and 2, or last two minutes percentages? etc.).
Sometimes you put the game in the hands of your best player. Tom Brady needs two yards. Who’s betting against him?

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