Paragraph of the day, red zone playcalling edition

Red Zone Play-Calling

On a first down Red Zone play, teams are more likely to score if it’s a run than a pass if they are at the 8 yard line or closer. Anything between the 9 and the 20 favors a pass on first down. That doesn’t mean that 100% pass is the optimal strategy, just that the play calling should favor the pass (or run inside the 9). For goal to go situations after first down, second down is the ultimate OC’s choice. From anywhere 10 and in on second and goal running and passing have nearly identical touchdown percents. On third and goal, the run still holds up strongly. A called run is more likely to score a TD on anything from the 6 and in than a pass, which owns 7 and up. Again, not saying the strategy should be 100%, but there is real value to favoring the run inside the 7.

There is more data driven situational analysis here.

  • Breezy Heezy

    It would be more interesting to know percentage TD within the context of previous redzone plays. In particular should you just run three times, or try to set up play action etc.

  • Gabeh73

    causation confusion alert….teams with bad running games aren’t running on 3rd and goal as much and therefore not scoring as high a percent of the time. Silly to use this datamining as the basis for your goalline offense. You have to look at your teams relative strengths and weakness and the opposing defenses strategy.