Simple Rating System: Final results and predicting the Bowls – 12/5/2011

Believe it or not, the Oklahoma State Cowboys ended up finishing #2 in the SRS. Like last week, LSU remains the clear #1. But on the basis of the most impressive SRS game of the season, the Cowboys topped the Crimson Tide.

Rk.  Team                 Conf  G    MOV      SOS      SRS      W-L
1.   LSU                  SEC   13   24.4     41.4     65.8     13-0
2.   Oklahoma St          B12   12   20.6     43.7     64.2     11-1
3.   Alabama              SEC   12   23.4     40.4     63.8     11-1
4.   Oregon               P12   13   18.7     41.1     59.8     11-2
5.   Stanford             P12   12   19.3     39.6     58.8     11-1
6.   Oklahoma             B12   12   14.0     44.7     58.7      9-3
7.   Wisconsin            B10   13   21.8     36.7     58.5     11-2
8.   Boise St             MWC   12   20.9     34.2     55.1     11-1
9.   Michigan             B10   12   15.3     39.7     55.0     10-2
10.  Southern Cal         P12   12   11.0     42.1     53.2     10-2
11.  Texas A&M            B12   12    8.0     44.4     52.4      6-6
12.  Arkansas             SEC   12   12.3     39.6     51.8     10-2
13.  Houston              CUS   13   22.4     28.7     51.1     12-1
14.  Baylor               B12   12    7.0     44.0     51.0      9-3
15.  Michigan St          B10   13   11.2     39.2     50.4     10-3
16.  Georgia              SEC   13   10.2     39.3     49.5     10-3
17.  Notre Dame           IND   12    8.0     41.5     49.5      8-4
18.  TCU                  MWC   12   17.1     32.3     49.4     10-2
19.  Missouri             B12   12    6.3     43.0     49.3      7-5
20.  South Carolina       SEC   12   10.1     39.2     49.3     10-2
21.  Texas                B12   12    4.8     44.4     49.1      7-5
22.  Kansas St            B12   12    4.9     43.3     48.2     10-2
23.  Nebraska             B10   12    7.0     41.1     48.1      9-3
24.  Florida St           ACC   12   13.2     33.8     47.0      8-4
25.  Arizona St           P12   12    6.6     39.6     46.2      6-6
26.  Virginia Tech        ACC   13    9.8     35.6     45.4     11-2
27.  Clemson              ACC   13    7.4     37.3     44.6     10-3
28.  Southern Miss        CUS   13   15.5     29.0     44.5     11-2
29.  Penn State           B10   12    4.0     40.4     44.4      9-3
30.  California           P12   12    4.4     39.5     43.9      7-5
31.  Toledo               MAC   12    9.8     33.8     43.6      8-4
32.  West Virginia        BgE   12    7.2     36.1     43.3      9-3
33.  Vanderbilt           SEC   12    4.2     39.0     43.2      6-6
34.  Ohio State           B10   12    3.5     39.8     43.2      6-6
35.  Cincinnati           BgE   12   11.3     31.9     43.2      9-3
 (more…)

Simple Rating System for 11/28/2011 – Finish line in sight, the final picture sharpens

Last week, the Simple Rating System did not have Arkansas in the top three; the SRS was unimpressed by the Razorbacks, which explains why they didn’t drop too much. Last week, the SRS had Arkansas at #13 with a score of 53.4; this week they’re 13th at 52.1. LSU is now alone at the top, with a 1.2 point edge over Alabama. That jives with the early reports that the Tigers will be a 1.5 to 2 point favorite over the Crimson Tide in the potential rematch. Oklahoma State actually drops by over a point because Tulsa dropped by 2.5 points after getting blown out by Houston, and Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Missouri all dropped by a couple of points after unimpressive conference games (and their opponents did not improve by as much). But the Cowboys are still third, and the SRS puts them within a couple of points of Alabama.

Houston had by far its best game of the season this weekend — a 72.5 score after beating Tulsa (43.0) by 32 on the road (adjusted MOV of 29.5). According to the SRS, Houston’s worst five games all came in September. Since then, Houston has an average SRS score of 60.2 in its last seven games with not a single sub-50 performance. I was (appropriately) skeptical of the Cougars based on an easy schedule for most of the season, but they’ve been playing at an elite level for the last two months. The full SRS results:

Rk.  Team                 Conf  G    MOV      SOS      SRS      W-L
1.   LSU                  SEC   12   24.1     41.1     65.2     12-0
2.   Alabama              SEC   12   23.4     40.7     64.0     11-1
3.   Oklahoma St          B12   11   20.0     42.6     62.6     10-1
4.   Oklahoma             B12   11   17.7     43.3     61.1      9-2
5.   Oregon               P12   12   19.0     41.6     60.6     10-2
6.   Stanford             P12   12   19.3     39.9     59.1     11-1
7.   Wisconsin            B10   12   23.0     35.9     59.0     10-2
8.   Boise St             MWC   11   19.8     36.4     56.2     10-1
9.   Michigan             B10   12   15.3     40.1     55.4     10-2
10.  Houston              CUS   12   26.3     27.7     53.9     12-0
11.  Southern Cal         P12   12   11.0     42.4     53.5     10-2
12.  Texas A&M            B12   12    8.0     44.9     52.9      6-6
13.  Arkansas             SEC   12   12.3     39.8     52.1     10-2
14.  Texas                B12   11    7.1     44.0     51.1      7-4
15.  Georgia              SEC   12   13.4     37.6     51.0     10-2
16.  Michigan St          B10   12   12.7     38.1     50.8     10-2
17.  Notre Dame           IND   12    8.0     41.8     49.8      8-4
18.  Missouri             B12   12    6.3     43.3     49.7      7-5
19.  South Carolina       SEC   12   10.1     39.6     49.7     10-2
20.  Baylor               B12   11    5.7     43.9     49.6      8-3
21.  TCU                  MWC   11   15.6     33.6     49.2      9-2
22.  Kansas St            B12   11    4.7     44.0     48.6      9-2
23.  Nebraska             B10   12    7.0     41.5     48.5      9-3
24.  Virginia Tech        ACC   12   12.8     35.4     48.2     11-1
25.  Florida St           ACC   12   13.2     34.2     47.4      8-4
 (more…)

Simple Rating System: Where the SEC is not 1-2-3 – 11/21/2011

Last week, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Oregon all ranked in the top five of the SRS. And while all three lost this weekend as big favorites — and each of their SRS ratings dropped significantly — they had built up such a large lead over the rest of the pack that they remain in the top five. Let’s break it down:

Oklahoma State was at 67.3 but lost to Iowa State (SRS of 38.1 before the game) in Ames, Iowa by six points. How shocking was this? The SRS pegged the Cowboys last week as 26.2 point favorite while the actual point spread was 26.5. Oklahoma State played their worst game of the season, producing an SRS score of 33.7 (a -7 adjusted margin of victory against an opponent that — thanks in part to beating OSU — has an SRS score of 40.7). Oklahoma State is now at just 63.7 for the year.

Oklahoma fared a little better, as Baylor (current SRS of 49.4) is a better opponent. Losing by 7 in Waco (SRS grade for OU of 42.4) was still a better performance for the Sooners than the inexplicable 3-point home loss against Texas Tech (32.4), but the two bad performances are somewhat canceled out by the monster blowouts against Kansas State and Texas. Oklahoma dropped from 66.0 to 62.7 with the loss.

Oregon lost at home, but to a much better opponent. USC is now the 13th best team in the SRS, and not just because they took Stanford to triple overtime. The Trojans beat Notre Dame by 14 in South Bend and blew out California, Washington and Colorado. The Trojans were ugly against the good version of Arizona State, but that wasn’t even their worst performance of the season (in week 1, USC won by only two at home against Minnesota). But USC is one of the hottest teams in colege football, scoring an SRS grade of over 60 in four of their last six games. In fact, for SRS purposes, the Stanford loss was their worst game in that stretch.

Oregon put up a -7 adjusted MOV against USC, but USC’s 52.4 rating makes it a somewhat forgivable loss. The Ducks drop from 64.2 to 61.2.

Prior to the game, Oregon was at 64.2 and USC at 52.5, which suggests a point spread of 14.7 points for a game in Eugene. The actual spread was 15.5. Oklahoma was at 66.0 and Baylor at 47.8, which would put the point spread for a game in Waco at 15.2; the actual line was 17. The SRS standings below, along with the projected line for LSU/Arkansas:

Rk   Team                 Conf   G   MOV      SOS      SRS      Rec
1.   LSU                  SEC   11   24.4     40.5     64.8     11-0
2.   Alabama              SEC   11   23.0     41.4     64.4     10-1
3.   Oklahoma St          B12   11   20.0     43.8     63.7     10-1
4.   Oklahoma             B12   10   17.8     44.9     62.7      8-2
5.   Oregon               P12   11   18.5     42.7     61.2      9-2
6.   Stanford             P12   11   20.0     39.5     59.5     10-1
7.   Wisconsin            B10   11   22.5     35.9     58.3      9-2
8.   Boise St             MWC   10   19.9     37.8     57.7      9-1
9.   Michigan             B10   11   16.0     40.6     56.6      9-2
10.  Texas A&M            B12   11    9.4     45.5     54.9      6-5
11.  Arkansas             SEC   11   15.3     38.1     53.4     10-1
12.  Houston              CUS   11   26.0     27.1     53.0     11-0
13.  Southern Cal         P12   11    8.8     43.6     52.4      9-2
14.  Missouri             B12   11    5.6     46.0     51.6      6-5
15.  Texas                B12   10    7.2     44.4     51.5      6-4
 (more…)

Simple Rating System: The Oklahoma State Cowboys rise to top the rankings, with a caveat

By now, you understand how the Simple Rating System works. Last week, Stanford and Boise State were top six teams with BCS aspirations. Following home losses, both teams can still take pride in how far they’ve come: a second straight 12-1 season will be viewed as a disappointment.

As always, thanks to Dr. Peter Wolfe for providing the game scores. Here are the SRS results through week 10. The SRS places equal weight on each game and cares more about margin of victory than records (which is why it’s a predictive system). As a result, Stanford (5th last week) and Boise State (7th last week) are still top 10 teams, as is 5-5 Texas A&M. All three of those teams are 16+ favorites this week.

Rk   Team                 Conf   G   MOV      SOS      SRS      Rec
1.   Oklahoma St          B12   10   22.7     44.7     67.3    10-0
2.   Alabama              SEC   10   23.2     43.0     66.2     9-1
3.   LSU                  SEC   10   23.0     43.0     66.0    10-0
4.   Oklahoma             B12    9   20.6     45.5     66.0     8-1
5.   Oregon               P12   10   21.1     43.2     64.2     9-1
6.   Stanford             P12   10   22.0     40.0     62.0     9-1
7.   Wisconsin            B10   10   23.3     36.6     59.9     8-2
8.   Boise St             MWC    9   19.9     38.9     58.8     8-1
9.   Michigan             B10   10   15.2     41.0     56.2     8-2
10.  Texas A&M            B12   10    6.6     47.9     54.5     5-5
11.  Notre Dame           IND   10   10.7     43.0     53.7     7-3
12.  Texas                B12    9    8.7     44.7     53.4     6-3
13.  Georgia              SEC   10   13.7     39.7     53.3     8-2
14.  Missouri             B12   10    5.5     47.5     53.0     5-5
15.  Houston              CUS   10   26.0     26.8     52.8    10-0
16.  Arkansas             SEC   10   14.3     38.4     52.7     9-1
17.  Southern Cal         P12   10    9.0     43.5     52.5     8-2
18.  TCU                  MWC   10   15.1     36.7     51.8     8-2
19.  Nebraska             B10   10    9.9     41.8     51.7     8-2
20.  Arizona St           P12   10    9.8     41.8     51.6     6-4
21.  Michigan St          B10   10    9.9     41.5     51.4     8-2
22.  South Carolina       SEC   10    8.5     42.3     50.8     8-2
23.  Florida St           ACC   10   14.9     35.6     50.5     7-3
24.  Kansas St            B12   10    4.5     45.9     50.3     8-2
25.  Virginia Tech        ACC   10   12.1     36.9     49.0     9-1
 (more…)

Simple Rating System – Week 10: Where LSU — and ‘Bama — continue to lead the pack

Last week, I discussed how the simple rating system could be an easy-to-understand and effective predictive ranking system. This week, I’ll be updating the ratings after the week 10 results, and providing an update on each conference. As always, special thanks to Dr. Wolfe who publishes the game scores for every NCAA and NAIA game each week.

The SRS assigns equal weight to each game, so by week 10, the weekly fluctuations are not significant. Still, here are the current SRS standings as of today:

Rk   Team                Conf   G   MOV      SOS      SRS      W-L
1.   LSU                  SEC   9   22.6     46.1     68.7     9-0
2.   Alabama              SEC   9   23.6     43.6     67.2     8-1
3.   Oklahoma             B12   9   20.6     45.8     66.4     8-1
4.   Oklahoma St          B12   9   20.3     45.8     66.1     9-0
5.   Stanford             P12   9   27.2     37.7     64.9     9-0
6.   Oregon               P12   9   20.6     41.5     62.1     8-1
7.   Boise St             MWC   8   23.3     37.5     60.8     8-0
8.   Wisconsin            B10   9   22.8     37.6     60.3     7-2
9.   Texas A&M            B12   9    7.3     48.2     55.5     5-4
10.  Michigan             B10   9   14.7     40.5     55.2     7-2
 (more…)